So Obama won Nebraska, Washington and Louisiana. Maybe that’s not a big deal. You could argue that he only gained about 40 or so delegates over Clinton in those states (and the Virgin Islands — very important, those Islands) . You could argue that those are small-ish states. You could take the Clinton-in-South-Carolina approach and say that there are a lot of African-Americans in Louisiana. You could even say that Clinton holds the edge in the all-important superdelegates.
But it is a big deal that Obama wons those states … because Hillary Clinton thinks its a big deal. How do we know that? She fired her campaign manager today.
Campaigns are fluid things. Visions and messages are constantly being reworked, stump speeches can be totally revamped one day to the next, and staff come and go with remarkable ease. That’s the normal state of being for campaigns.
But firing a campaign manager is a tricky thing because it does send a particular signal; after all, noone fires a successful manager. So it pretty much goes without saying that Clinton letting her manager go is a sign that she doesn’t think things are going very well.
Despite the fact that she very decisively showed that the Latino and working-class vote belonged to her in California, despite the edge she apparently still has among white women and moderate Democrats, despite the fact that she has never quit from a tough fight, Clinton has lost the momentum and she knows it. The split between her and Obama was significant (there are not enough non-white people in Nebraska to totally explain that away) this past weekend and my (totes un-informed) opinion is that the Potomac Primary is only going to solidify that gap.
McCain’s presumptive position as the Republican nominee (sorry Huck 
)means that a lot of people, including unpledged superdelegates, are going to be looking at Obama’s strength with independents, non-Southern white men, and youth voters. Now it’s not just who will win the Democratic nomination or who represents the best interests of the Democratic Party; it’s who can beat McCain in the fall. Clinton and Obama are no longer running against each other; they are individually running against McCain and Obama seems to be winning.
No one ever made any money betting against the Clintons; they are formidable, with a deep reach into the Democratic establishment and instincts honed from decades of political fighting (they have, technically, never lost a race … for anything). So it’s possible that Maggie Williams, Clinton’s new campaign manager and long-time advisor, will swing it back her way again. After all, she still has Pennsylvania, Texas and Ohio and about 500 unpledged superdelegates.
I mean, anything is possible, right?
UPDATE: Obama leading in Maine caucuses
UPDATE II: CNN projects Obama to win Maine
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It all depends on who has the most pledged delegates going into the convention. Can you imagine the super delegates taking away an Obama nomination? They would do so at the peril of the Democratic Party and perhaps throw away victory in 2008. I don’t think they’re that stupid. Of course democrats have a way of snatching defeat from the jaws of victoy.
Report from Richmond: I didn’t see one Republican in line this morning. The Democrat line had about 20 people at 8 am. Was probably the opposite in the West End.
“Of course democrats have a way of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory” … truer words have never been spoken.
I agree that the superdelegates will not actually be able to decide the nominee. If Obama is clearly winning the popular vote, the Clinton-pledged superdelegates will probably start strongly “encouraging” her to put the party before the personal. I wonder if any of them regret endorsing her so early?
Gov’ Kaine has given his support to Obama. There might even be a spot in his administration for him when his term is up in 2010. I’m excited about the prospect of having Obama in the White House. I’d love to see the administration that he picks. It could be “Camelot” all over again.
The best thing about the “Potomac Primary” was the number of people who voted in the democratic primary vs the number of people who voted in the republican primary. Even in Virginia there were something like 2x as many dems as republicans.
On MSNBC they mentioned that only about 4000 people total had voted in the DC republican primary and you could hear people in the background laughing — probably those people live in DC.
I’m a little surprised there are even 4,000 Republicans in DC … I don’t even think the quasi-Republicans on the DC Council voted Republican.
Re Lil’ Bro’s comment: that’s one reason I’d like to see the nomination get decided sooner rather than later … the Dems can start picking out a Cabinet and really presenting a whole package to the voter in November. Maybe room for some Edwards, a Biden and/or Dodd … hell, let’s get a Richardson and some of those Midwest/West female governors maybe in there as well.